The leading metrics influencing PV industry supply and demand (module production, supply and market-demand) are forecast to come to within 8% of the second-half market demand of 17.2 GW, according to recent findings in the latest NPD Solarbuzz Quarterly report. This follows two years of turbulent over-capacity, over-supply, and inventory build in both the upstream and downstream segments of the value-chain.
According to Michael Barker, Analyst at NPD Solarbuzz, "The PV industry has been suffering from a significant imbalance between supply and demand for over 18 months, causing severe price erosion and reducing corporate margins. However, confidence in strong market demand during 2H12, together with prudent capacity utilization, will provide PV market leaders with increased visibility ahead of 2013 strategic planning."
Global PV demand for 2012 is forecast to exceed 30 GW (up 8% Y/Y), driven by strong Q412 pull from emerging Asia Pacific regions, in particular China. With a 2H12 demand of over 5 GW, the growth of the domestic Chinese market will provide welcome relief for Chinese c-Si manufacturers, more than offsetting any impacts from the recent US Department of Commerce (DoC) ruling or potential "anti-dumping" filings within Europe.
In fact, most leading Chinese module manufacturers are planning for greater demand this year, by as much as 30% above the 30 GW mark. This optimism comes from year-end surges seen before in the PV industry, a greater number of emerging countries added to the PV demand-mix, and possible upside from new ground-mount projects whose return-on-investments are decoupled from (legacy) regional incentives.
Increased module shipments will be driven initially by downstream integrators, restocking inventories during Q312 in expectation of the year-end demand surge. However, capacity expansion plans remain largely on hold for 2H12, with the exception of leading Taiwan cell makers that are currently running at maximum utilization levels following the preliminary DoC ruling.