The commercial and residential sectors have the largest energy savings potential for a switch to LED lighting, says the DoE in a recent report on the "Energy Savings Potential of Solid-State Lighting in General Illumination Applications."
These sectors contribute 37 and 34%, respectively, annually to the energy savings from use of LEDs projected out to the year 2030. The outdoor stationary sector contributes another 25% and the industrial sector 4%.
This DOE report forecasts the energy savings potential of light-emitting diode (LED) white-light sources compared to conventional white-light sources (i.e., incandescent, halogen, fluorescent, and high intensity discharge). DoE statisticians used an econometric model of the U.S. lighting market through the year 2030 to come up with their conclusions. The report compares the annual lighting energy consumption under a scenario considering the growing market presence of LEDs to energy consumption under a baseline scenario, which hypothesizes no additional market penetration of LEDs in general illumination applications.
The reason the DoE came to the conclusion it did about the residential sector is that the residential installed lighting stock is dominated by incandescent lamps, which provide ample room for improvement. The outdoor stationary and industrial sectors have relatively low energy savings potential because their higher average efficacies will make it more difficult for LED sources to penetrate, DoE says. For example, the outdoor stationary sector already has energy-efficient sources such as high-pressure sodium, so DoE figures it can only save about 25% by 2030 compared to its baseline.
Still, says DoE, its energy savings forecast can only be realized through substantial improvements in price, efficacy, and operating life of LED lighting products. If these improvements are met, the economics will drive increasing LED market share through the end of the analysis period and beyond.
The full report is free and available here: http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/ssl_energy-savings-report_jan-2012.pdf